Obama and the Gravel Pit Theory
2 Comments Published November 19th, 2008 in National and International Issues.How Obama got where he is tells you more than you might think about him.
Back in May, I wrote about something I call, The Gravel Pit Theory.
In case you don’t want to re-read it, here’s my basic theory:
Consider a gravel pit with piles of different sized rocks. They get those piles by screening rock and dirt that they dig out of the pit. If you pick a rock at random out of a pile that has inch sized rocks in it, you can be pretty sure that this rock is about an inch too.
That’s what happens to people as they make their way through life. They hit various screens and they either bounce off or go through the screen because they’re the “right size.” So, for example, if someone has gone through the process of running for dog catcher, council member, mayor, congressman, senator . . . . You can be pretty sure that the person has the skills to be elected to public office. Unfortunately, the skills lead to the thoroughly corrupt behavior you can see in Ted Stevens and our own Orrin Hatch.
Looking back at the recent election, there’s a stark difference between John McCain and Barack Obama that’s explained pretty well by my gravel pit theory.
John McCain was probably a likable person early in his life, even though his only real skill seemed to be knowing how to really party. But, initially trading on his famous captivity and his family connections, he was elected to Congress and then to the Senate … over and over again. After surviving getting caught with his hand in the public purse in the Keating Five incident and multiple re-elections, McCain has emerged as a hardened politician. That’s why he had no trouble turning his campaign over to the very same professional liars who beat him with dirty politics in his 2000 run for President. He had been “screened” enough times to guarantee that “win at any cost – any cost at all” was the only ethic left in him.
But enough of McCain. Although his skills at running for office are probably good enough to pull the wool over the eyes of the people of Arizona one more time, the other liars in the Senate are about as bad as him so he’s not likely to poison the place any more than it already is. Except as an example that a lot of people recognize – that’s the way I’ve used his case here – he’s a non-entity now.
But what about Obama? As I explained in the original article, every now and then, somebody falls through a “hole in the gravel screen”. Many people have forgotten exactly how this happened with Obama and it’s a fascinating story worth keeping in mind because it’s an exception to the theory that helps prove it, maybe even better than negative examples like Stevens, Hatch, and McCain.
Much was made of Obama’s “inexperience” by the McCain double-talkers. And, much to his credit, he has only been elected to two public offices before running for President. The first office was to the Illinois Senate. Due to his good works in the Illinois district he ran in, he was beloved by the people who voted for him and won it the way elections should be won (but seldom are). He also lost an election to the U.S. Congress in Illinois the way elections are usually lost.
But the second office, the US Senate, was a true, “hole in the screen” event. Actually, Obama only made it because he fell through two different holes.
The seat was “open” because the previous career politician holding it had opted out. Nine Democrats and eight Republicans filed for election. The Democratic primary was a free-for-all and Obama was in second place. The front runner, Blair Hull, had spent over $28 million of his considerable personal wealth to buy the office. But at the worst time, Hull was knocked out of the running by a media scandal from his recent divorce. Court records showed that he had threatened his ex with violence. Obama won in a walk after that.
In the main election, however, he was up against Illinois icon, Jack Ryan. Six-foot-four and Hollywood handsome, Ryan graduated from Harvard Law with top grades just like Obama. Unlike Obama, he turned his Harvard Law credentials into money in the banking business and was worth hundreds of millions at the time of the Senate race. Things weren’t looking good for the slightly geeky looking, relatively poor, and unfortunately named Barack Hussein Obama.
But … Remember the alien who always dressed in a skin tight gold leotard on “Star Trek: Voyager”. I sure do! Ummmmm-um-Ummm-UMMMM! That was the former Mrs. Jack Ryan, Jeri Ryan.
Well … there was a nasty custody battle during their divorce and Mrs. Ryan disclosed that Mr. Ryan tried to get her to have live, public sex in a Paris sex club with cages, whips, and chains hanging from the ceiling. Twice. This from the “family values” candidate.
Jack Ryan tried desperately to stay in the race for weeks past the scandalous revelations. But he was finally overwhelmed by a howling mob screaming for his blood. (Obama, true to form, refused to criticize his rival at the time.) Again, at the last moment, Ryan withdrew from the race and the Republicans searched desperately for a replacement. For a time, Obama didn’t even have an opponent and campaigned out of state for other Democrats. They finally found a talk show host who wasn’t even from Illinois to run. Obama beat him by record setting margins.
What is it with politicians and their wives? (McCain divorced the crippled wife who waited for him throughout his captivity to marry a very rich, and much younger, beer hieress.)
Bottom line: Obama fell through a hole in the screen. Just by accident, he has never been forced to lie, pander, and ignore his principals to win elections. He’s the accidental President. And that’s a good thing!
I consider myself fairly conservative (by Washington County standards I am probably somewhat liberal.) I used to be a Democrat but when I moved to Utah I registered independent. I feel as Ronald Reagan did that I did not leave the Democratic Party but it left me.
I am not as dismissive as you about the good works of McCain over his years in the Senate.
Nor am I quite as enamored with Obama. I did vote for him but might have had second thoughts had there been any chance he would carry Utah.
However I must say that I am quite impressed with the President-elect as to personality, temperament and intellect.
I agree that he comes to the Presidency with relatively clean hands — although I do not believe that he was totally honest about his relationships with Wright and Ayers.
I am skeptical about some of his policies, but time will tell.
Change of subject – I have noticed numerous news stories the last few days about the Somali pirates. All the proposed solutions involve better security for ships transiting the dangerous waters. I have seen none that suggest actually going in and cleaning out the pirate’s safe havens.
Wright and Ayers …
Wright is a nut. Obama disavowed him. Surely we’re beyond getting overheated about religious nuts in Utah!
As for Ayers, I finally learned something about the man himself by listening to an hour long interview with him on National Public Radio. Although Obama really has no association with him … the canards of the McCain campaign was below-the-belt “guilt by association” in the finest tradition of McCarthy … as a result of listening to the NPR interview, I think I would be proud to be associated with him.
Ayers and I are about the same age and confronted the same demons during the VietNam War. I would not … and did not … go as far as Ayers did during his days with the Weather Underground, but he was on the right side, and our country was not. In the finest “Boston Tea Party” tradition, he did his best for his country. Today, I wonder whether I should have done more.
“All the proposed solutions involve better security for ships …”
Au Contraire, mon freire.
Associated Press:
“The African Union urged the United Nations to quickly send peacekeepers to Somalia …”
The Guardian (UK)
“The United Nations Security Council unanimously imposed fresh sanctions on Somalia today amid calls for armed peacekeepers to be sent to the Horn of Africa.”
“Analysts say that in the long term the key to ending piracy is establishing an effective authority on land in Somalia.”
Voice of America
“Seven Arab states, including Egypt, Yemen, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are meeting in Cairo in a bid to find an effective response to the growing threat of piracy in the Red Sea.”
“Mohammed Shazly (analyst, Arab daily al Hayat) said the Cairo conference is debating every possible solution to the piracy crisis, military and otherwise.”
But, I admit, most nations are having difficulty reconciling their distaste for disturbing the principal of “national sovereignty” with the practical requirements of actually doing something about this mess. Nonetheless, the pressure is clearly there. I was always careful to note that this “might” (not “will”) create the kind of “world response” that might be precedent setting and that we so clearly need.
The dilemma that this mess is presenting to nations is described very well in this article from the Asia Times (Hong Kong) about the problems China is having in deciding where to position themselves:
China all at sea off Africa
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/JK21Ad02.html
“China is merely discovering that Africa isn’t as simple as it looked.”
Few things are.