What are we to conclude from the failure of the Copenhagen climate change summit?

The Frontiers of Science lecture at the University of Utah had been excellent – as usual! Attending these world-class presentations was one of the really great benefits of living in a large city. The speakers were always at least on a level that made them candidates for Nobel Prizes. Some were actual winners. Hearing someone who was at the very top of his field in science first hand was a consistently rewarding experience.

The speaker on that particular evening almost ten years ago was one of the world’s foremost experts in a phenominon just starting to make headlines: global warming. People wanted to know if it was real or not and how scientists could be so sure about it. The lecture had buried us in evidence that left absolutely no doubt: it was real. But in the question and answer session at the end, there were still a few people who wanted to dispute the facts. The real scientist at the podium had no trouble exposing the deep flaws in their pseudo science.

Near the end of the question and answer session, I raised my hand to ask the question that was at the heart of my own thoughts:

“Isn’t it a real possibility that it’s simply too late to do anything about it?”

The scientist didn’t answer my question with the quick and easy reply that he had for the pseudo science doubters. After a frightening pause, he delivered a somewhat longish answer that I’ll paraphrase here as, “Maybe, but I refuse to allow myself to think like that.” That was ten years ago. The only change since then is that the evidence has simply become more clear and undeniable.

I don’t refuse to allow myself to think like that. I have long held the opinion that it really is too late. Your kids and your grandkids will inherit a world that will dissolve in chaos. I can’t see a way for civilization itself to survive what I see coming. The recent Copenhagen conference is just one more fact added to the mountain of evidence that spells why. The only things that seem to me to be in doubt are how much time is left and what will happen first. (See Note 1)

It’s pretty universally recognized now that the Copenhagen climate change summit failed. The only real agreement was to agree to disagree. Nothing will be done as a result except that everyone there will blame someone else for the failure. The reason it failed was spelled out in scientist Garrett Hardin’s 1968 essay, “Tragedy of the commons”. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons, http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_tragedy_of_the_commons.html). Nearly all of the people at Copenhagen simply tried to maximize their own gain relative to other participants and did not really even consider how to solve the root problem. Therefore, the overarching problem remains unsolved and will remain unsolved. I believe it is too late now. Soon it will be too, too late. Then it will be too, too, too late. And blaming others will move to trying to force others to solve the problem and then taking revenge on others because they did not solve the problem.

It may be too late to solve global warming, but it will never be too late to make things worse.

——————-
Note 1: People often ask me how I can be so cheerful when I hold views like this. (And I am cheerful!) The answer can be found in the Buddhist Parable of the Strawberry. I thank my boss at my old company for introducing me to this bedrock concept. It’s made my life better ever since. The Parable of the Strawberry: http://www.101zenstories.com/index.php?story=18